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The Great Calcite Belt (GCB) is a band of high concentrations of suspended particulate inorganic carbon (PIC) spanning the subantarctic Southern Ocean and plays an important role in the global carbon cycle. The key limiting factors controlling coccolithophore growth supporting this high PIC have not yet been well‐characterized in the remote Pacific sector, the lowest PIC but largest area of the GCB. Here, we present in situ physical and biogeochemical measurements along 150°W from January to February 2021, where a coccolithophore bloom occurred. In both months, PIC was elevated in the Subantarctic Zone (SAZ), where nitrate was >1 μM and temperatures were ∼13°C in January and ∼14°C in February, consistent with conditions previously associated with optimal coccolithophore growth potential. The highest PIC was associated with a relatively narrow temperature range that increased about 1°C between occupations. A fresher water mass had been transported to the 150°W meridian between occupations, and altimetry‐informed Lagrangian backtracking estimates show that most of this water was likely transported from the southeast within the SAZ. Applying the observations in a coccolithophore growth model for both January and February, we show that the ∼1.7°C increase in temperature can explain the rise in PIC between occupations.

Large‐scale loss of oxygen under global warming is termed “ocean deoxygenation” and is caused by the imbalance between physical supply and biological consumption of oxygen in the ocean interior. Significant progress has been made in the theoretical understanding of ocean deoxygenation; however, many questions remain unresolved. The oxygen change in the tropical thermocline is poorly understood, with diverging projections among different models. Physical oxygen supply is controlled by a suite of processes that transport oxygen‐rich surface waters into the interior ocean, which is expected to weaken due to increasing stratification under global warming. Using a numerical model and a series of sensitivity experiments, the role of ocean mixing is examined in terms of effects on the mean state and the response to a transient warming. Both vertical and horizontal (isopycnal) mixing coefficients are systematically varied over a wide range, and the resulting oxygen distributions in equilibrated and transient simulations are examined. The spatial patterns of oxygen loss are sensitive to both vertical and isopycnal mixing, and the sign of tropical oxygen trend under climate warming can reverse depending on the choice of mixing parameters. An elevated level of isopycnal mixing disrupts the vertical advective‐diffusive balance of the tropical thermocline, increasing the mean state oxygen as well as the magnitude of the transient oxygen decline. These results provide first‐order explanations for the diverging behaviors of simulated tropical oxygen with respect to ocean mixing parameters.

Biological processes in Southern Ocean surface waters have widespread impacts on global productivity and oceanic CO₂storage. Here, we demonstrate that biological calcification in the Southern Ocean exerts a strong control on the global distribution of alkalinity. The signature of Southern Ocean calcification is evident in observations as a depletion of potential alkalinity within portions of Subantarctic Mode and Intermediate Water. Experiments with an ocean general circulation model indicate that calcification and subsequent sinking of biogenic carbonate in this region effectively transfers alkalinity between the upper and lower cells of the meridional overturning circulation. Southern Ocean calcification traps alkalinity in the deep ocean; decreasing calcification permits more alkalinity to leak out from the Southern Ocean, yielding increased alkalinity in the upper cell and low‐latitude surface waters. These processes have implications for atmosphere‐ocean partitioning of carbon. Reductions in Southern Ocean calcification increase the buffer capacity of surface waters globally, thereby enhancing the ocean's ability to absorb carbon from the atmosphere. This study highlights the critical role of Southern Ocean calcification in determining global alkalinity distributions, demonstrating that changes in this process have the potential for widespread consequences impacting air‐sea partitioning of CO₂.

Global warming may modify submesoscale activity in the ocean through changes in the mixed layer depth (MLD) and lateral buoyancy gradients. As a case study we consider a region in the NE Atlantic under present and future climate conditions, using a time‐slice method and global and nested regional ocean models. The high resolution regional model reproduces the strong seasonal cycle in submesoscale activity observed under present‐day conditions. Focusing on the well‐resolved winter months, in the future, with a reduction in the MLD, there is a substantial reduction in submesoscale activity, an associated decrease in kinetic energy (KE) at the mesoscale, and the vertical buoyancy flux induced by submesoscale activity is reduced by a factor of 2. When submesoscale activity is suppressed, by increasing the parameterized lateral mixing in the model, the climate change induces a larger reduction in winter MLDs while there is less of a change in KE at the mesoscale. A scaling for the vertical buoyancy flux proposed by (Fox‐Kemper et al., 2008; doi:10.1175/2007JPO3792.1) based on the properties of mixed layer instability (MLI), is found to capture much of the seasonal and future changes to the flux in terms of regional averages as well as the spatial structure, although it over predicts the reduction in the flux in the winter months. The vertical buoyancy flux when the mixed layer is relatively shallow is significantly greater than that given by the scaling based on MLI, suggesting during these times other processes (besides MLI) may dominate submesoscale buoyancy fluxes.

Continental shelf sediments are an important source of iron (Fe) in the oceans. Observational data suggest that basin‐scale transport of sedimentary sourced Fe accompanies the ventilation of the intermediate layer in the North Pacific. Here we use a marine biogeochemical model to explore the Fe transport mechanism with a focus on the role of sinking particles. The lateral penetration of sedimentary sourced Fe was best simulated when we assumed a short desorption and disaggregation length scale of Fe from sinking particles. The simulation results indicated that Fe is laterally transported mainly through interactions with particles with sinking velocities of 180–460 m yr⁻¹; these velocities are two orders of magnitude slower than typical sinking rates of marine aggregates determined from mass flux measurements. Slowly sinking particles drive the basin‐scale transport of Fe by prolonging its residence time and by injecting sedimentary sourced Fe supplied originally to less dense waters into the intermediate layer water across isopycnal surfaces. A large amount of Fe from shelf sediments of the Okhotsk and Bering Seas is exported to the North Pacific through this particle interaction. These results highlight a biogeochemical linkage between the marginal seas and ocean basins that has been overlooked in global ocean models.

Observations of oceanic transient tracers have indicated that the circulation in the Southern Ocean has changed in recent decades, potentially driven by changes in external climate forcing. Here, we use the CESM Large Ensemble to analyze changes in two oceanic tracers that are affected by ocean circulation: the partial pressure of chlorofluorocarbon‐12 (pCFC12) and the idealized model tracer Ideal Age (IAGE) over the 1991 to 2005 period. The small ensemble mean change in IAGE suggests that there has been very little externally forced change in Southern Ocean circulation over this period, in contrast to strong internal variability. Further, our analysis implies that real‐world observations of changes in pCFC12 may not be a robust way to characterize externally driven changes in Southern Ocean circulation because of the large internal variability in pCFC12 changes exhibited by the individual ensemble members.

Interannual variations in marine net primary production (NPP) contribute to the variability of available living marine resources, as well as influence critical carbon cycle processes. Here we provide a global overview of near‐term (1 to 10 years) potential predictability of marine NPP using a novel set of initialized retrospective decadal forecasts from an Earth System Model. Interannual variations in marine NPP are potentially predictable in many areas of the ocean 1 to 3 years in advance, from temperate waters to the tropics, showing a substantial improvement over a simple persistence forecast. However, some regions, such as the subpolar Southern Ocean, show low potential predictability. We analyze how bottom‐up drivers of marine NPP (nutrients, light, and temperature) contribute to its predictability. Regions where NPP is primarily driven by the physical supply of nutrients (e.g., subtropics) retain higher potential predictability than high‐latitude regions where NPP is controlled by light and/or temperature (e.g., the Southern Ocean). We further examine NPP predictability in the world's Large Marine Ecosystems. With a few exceptions, we show that initialized forecasts improve potential predictability of NPP in Large Marine Ecosystems over a persistence forecast and may aid to manage living marine resources.

Anthropogenic CO₂emissions are inundating the upper ocean, acidifying the water, and altering the habitat for marine phytoplankton. These changes are thought to be particularly influential for calcifying phytoplankton, namely, coccolithophores. Coccolithophores are widespread and account for a substantial portion of open ocean calcification; changes in their abundance, distribution, or level of calcification could have far‐reaching ecological and biogeochemical impacts. Here, we isolate the effects of increasing CO₂on coccolithophores using an explicit coccolithophore phytoplankton functional type parameterization in the Community Earth System Model. Coccolithophore growth and calcification are sensitive to changing aqueous CO₂. While holding circulation constant, we demonstrate that increasing CO₂concentrations cause coccolithophores in most areas to decrease calcium carbonate production relative to growth. However, several oceanic regions show large increases in calcification, such the North Atlantic, Western Pacific, and parts of the Southern Ocean, due to an alleviation of carbon limitation for coccolithophore growth. Global annual calcification is 6% higher under present‐day CO₂levels relative to preindustrial CO₂(1.5 compared to 1.4 Pg C/year). However, under 900 μatm CO₂, global annual calcification is 11% lower than under preindustrial CO₂levels (1.2 Pg C/year). Large portions of the ocean show greatly decreased coccolithophore calcification relative to growth, resulting in significant regional carbon export and air‐sea CO₂exchange feedbacks. Our study implies that coccolithophores become more abundant but less calcified as CO₂increases with a tipping point in global calcification (changing from increasing to decreasing calcification relative to preindustrial) at approximately ∼600 μatm CO₂.